IMF, World Bank Warn AI Could Deepen Nigeria’s Unemployment Crisis

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could intensify employment challenges in Nigeria and other developing economies unless governments and businesses invest in digital skills, infrastructure and technologies that boost productivity and create jobs.

IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, issued the warning at the Small AI: More and Better Jobs event during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, describing AI as a “slow-moving tsunami”.

Georgieva said about 40 per cent of jobs globally could be affected by AI through task augmentation, changes in job quality or outright displacement, although the impact would vary across countries, industries and occupations.

She stressed the need for governments to understand the technology’s implications for labour markets and equip workers with the skills required to adapt to the changing nature of work.

World Bank Group President, Ajay Banga, said job creation must remain central to economic development, urging countries to deploy AI in ways that improve productivity and expand employment opportunities rather than merely replace human workers.

“The bank’s entire focus has to be on jobs,” Banga said.

He argued that affordable and practical AI applications could help schools, healthcare systems and agricultural communities improve efficiency and extend essential services to more people.

Banga illustrated the potential of what he described as “Small AI” with the example of a smallholder farmer using a basic mobile phone to photograph a diseased crop and receive advice on treatment.

Such technology, he explained, could also connect farmers to improved seeds, fertilisers, credit, insurance and market information, helping them increase productivity and access wider markets.

In healthcare, AI-enabled tools could assist frontline health workers in assessing patients and identifying cases requiring specialist attention, thereby improving access to medical services.

The Small AI approach focuses on affordable, locally adapted applications that reflect the languages, infrastructure, needs and financial capacity of developing communities, rather than relying exclusively on expensive and sophisticated AI systems.

The World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update identifies Nigeria, alongside Kenya and South Africa, as one of the continent’s leading centres of AI activity. However, the report indicates that adoption remains at an early stage, with significant opportunities to apply affordable AI solutions to local economic and social challenges.

Agriculture, education, healthcare, finance, logistics and public administration are among the sectors where the technology could improve productivity and service delivery.

The report, however, identifies unreliable electricity, inadequate internet connectivity, limited digital skills and poor-quality data as major constraints to wider AI adoption across Africa.

For Nigeria, these challenges underscore the need to strengthen digital infrastructure, expand access to relevant training and encourage the development of locally appropriate AI solutions that support productive employment.

The concerns also echo findings from the World Bank’s Digital Progress and Trends Report 2025: Strengthening AI Foundations, which highlighted disparities in global AI development and access.

According to the report, high-income economies accounted for 87 per cent of notable AI models, 86 per cent of AI start-ups and 91 per cent of global venture capital funding for AI as of mid-2025.

The report also highlighted a disparity between AI usage and infrastructure, noting that middle-income economies such as Brazil, India, Indonesia and Vietnam accounted for more than 40 per cent of global ChatGPT traffic, while low-income countries represented less than one per cent.

It further identified a significant digital skills gap between low- and high-income countries, warning that shortages of skilled workers and the migration of technology talent could limit the capacity of developing economies to participate meaningfully in the global AI industry.

The World Bank has consequently called for targeted investments in education, digital infrastructure and local talent development to enable developing countries to become active participants in AI innovation rather than remain predominantly consumers of technologies developed elsewhere.

Meanwhile, concerns about technology-driven job displacement have also been raised by the Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions (ASSBIFI).

Speaking in Lagos during the 2026 World Day for Decent Work commemoration, the association’s president, Fanimokun Adesina, warned that automation, robotics and AI were already changing employment patterns and displacing some workers.

“The future belongs to skilled workers. Digital skills, Artificial Intelligence and robotics are already displacing many workers,” Adesina said.

He urged workers to acquire relevant digital competencies and adapt to emerging workplace technologies to improve performance, productivity and their prospects of remaining relevant in the labour market.

The warnings from the IMF, World Bank and organised labour highlight the challenge confronting Nigeria and other developing economies: preparing workers for technological change while ensuring that AI adoption translates into broader economic opportunities.

For Nigeria, the central task is to bridge the digital divide, strengthen workforce capabilities and promote applications that help businesses expand, improve public services and create sustainable jobs, while managing the risk of employment displacement.