Arise Television presenter Rufai Oseni has warned the All Progressives Congress (APC) against assuming that political rallies, financial inducements and public declarations of support in Northern Nigeria reflect widespread approval of President Bola Tinubu’s administration ahead of the 2027 general election.
Oseni gave the assessment on Monday during a discussion on Arise Television’s Morning Show, where he examined the political calculations that could shape the next presidential election. He cautioned that the ruling party might be underestimating voter dissatisfaction in the North, suggesting that the electoral outcome could defy its expectations.
According to the broadcaster, the enthusiasm displayed by some supporters at political gatherings should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of genuine public approval. He argued that financial incentives and the public celebration of political figures might not translate into votes when Nigerians eventually head to the polls.
Oseni said his position was informed by his observations of political developments and public sentiment across Northern Nigeria. While acknowledging that his assessment could attract criticism for generalising the views of millions of people, he maintained that it reflected his reading of the region’s political mood rather than findings from a single empirical study.
He also cited public sentiment analysis as part of the basis for his position, insisting that political leaders should pay attention to the prevailing mood among voters instead of relying solely on visible displays of support.
The presenter further questioned the loyalty of governors who recently defected to the APC amid the crisis and fragmentation within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He suggested that some of the defectors might have been driven by circumstances within their former party rather than a genuine commitment to the ruling party’s political agenda.
Oseni expressed doubts about whether the governors would fully support the APC’s electoral ambitions in 2027, describing their movement into the party as an arrangement influenced by political necessity.
He said: “Do not deceive yourself, you see, politicians are the most delusional and the most optimistic people on earth.
“Because you are giving tonnes of people money in the north they are shouting your name, they are saying everything is well. Elections will shock you. Do not deceive yourself.
“The north is not happy with this administration.
“I know a lot of people will come back at me and say that’s a fallacy of hasty generalisation.
“But it’s an opinion gathering. It’s in feeling the pulse of the people in the north. It’s feeling the trajectory of what is happening in the north.
“Clearly, I know you’re going to ask me what’s the empirical data. Obviously, when you check a lot of public sentiment analysis, you see that obviously, to a large extent.
“Will the APC be able to trust the complete commitments of the governors that came to the fold of the APC because of the disintegration of the PDP? That’s another factor.
“You see, it’s a strange marriage arrangement. They just had to come to the APC, not because if they had a choice, if their own party was not disintegrated, or had not gone through the metamorphosis, do you think they’re going to come?
“So, are they going to be able to give their full commitment and just sweep everything off like that? It’s going to be interesting.”
The remarks highlight two potential challenges for the APC as preparations for the 2027 elections gather momentum: the extent of public satisfaction with Tinubu’s administration in the North and the willingness of recently defected governors to mobilise effectively for the party.
Oseni’s comments, however, represent his assessment of the political climate and should not be taken as a definitive measurement of voting intentions across the region.
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